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Republicans Surging Ahead of Midterms

Last year, it was commonly believed that the Republican Party would lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms, if not the Senate.

Donald Trump & Paul Ryan

The naysayers' argument had four proofs: The typical midterm performance for the party in power is dismal; President Donald Trump is more unpopular than recent presidents; there have been many Republican retirements, making competitive seats more obtainable for the Democrats; and congressional & senatorial Republicans have raised less money than the Democrats.

The argument against 2018 GOP success was backed up by a string of polls that showed the Republicans far behind the Democrats in the generic congressional ballot. In some surveys, the GOP trailed by double digits.

The tables have flipped, and the outlook is now much rosier for the Grand Old Party. A recent CNN poll shows that while 47% of the country wants Speaker Pelosi, 44% of respondents seek to maintain the GOP's grips on power.

The Republicans' three-point lag is within the poll's margin of error, which sits at 3.6%.

This increase in support for Republicans coincides with a sharp uptick in Trump's approval rating, which was measured at 49% in a recent Reuters poll. The RCP polling average has him at 43.2%, up from 37.0% in mid-December.

It is unclear what exactly changed the voters' mindset, but it is probable that large tax cuts, economic growth, and effective big-stick diplomacy -- spurred by the Trump administration and the congressional GOP -- have a role.

It is also probable that voters seek solutions beyond what the Democrats offer: wholesale resistance against Trump's policies and nominees, with the ultimate goal of impeachment and removal.

The Democrats have gone so far in their anti-Trump crusade that they have endorsed tax hikes, with Nancy Pelosi affirming that she would "roll back the tax cuts [that the GOP] passed this year." Pelosi previously referred to the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as "Armageddon."

Such comments from the minority leader, which essentially disparage the American competitive will, are anathema for voters who want the government out of their checkbooks.

The Democrats who have presented policy beyond the Resistance portfolio have made outlandish proposals that run counter to the wishes of the American body politic (examples would be promises to implement harsh gun control measures and socialized healthcare).

Thanks to the strength of the Republicans, it is becoming clear that they may not just keep the House -- they could barrel through red states and sweep up to 10 Senate seats.

Democratic senators are up for reelection in Missouri, North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana and Ohio, states where Trump won by large margins. In West Virginia and Indiana, strong Republican challengers have already been nominated.

Red-state Democrats can be easily defeated, and the toxicity of the national Democratic Party has only exacerbated their woes.

If things keep going the way that they're going, Trump may very well have another two years (or six years) of unified Republican government.

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