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2020 Central

This page contains our 2020 election projections.

Editor's note on past calls: In 2016, we successfully predicted that Hillary Clinton would fall short of 270 electoral votes and that the Republicans would win the House and the Senate. In 2018, we almost perfectly predicted the final Senate results: Our final projection was 54 seats for the Republicans when the actual number was 53. Moreover, our 10/24 projection perfectly mirrored the final results, with every non-tossup race called correctly (that is Nate Silver-level accuracy)!

Presidential map (3/16/2020):

This is our current 2020 Electoral-College projection. Instead of testing President Donald Trump against a "generic" Democrat, as we did in February, this projection matches Trump against the presumptive Democratic nominee: former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden would win 279-259 by flipping three erstwhile Trump states -- Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

This projection is not a guarantee of a Biden win. To the contrary, Trump -- despite facing a coronavirus-incurred recession -- could claw back the lead by flipping a single Biden state with more than 10 electoral votes (e.g., Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Virginia).