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Election Model

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per our model, Biden commands 318 electoral votes to 220 for President Donald Trump. Biden has added 21 electoral votes since our previous forecast.

However, the Trump-Biden race is still up in the air. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 232 and Trump's to 126.

The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (48.29% Biden/47.14% Trump), Florida (48.83% Biden/47.55% Trump), Georgia (48.64% Trump/46.95% Biden), Iowa (49.91% Trump/46.54% Biden), Minnesota (49.79% Biden/45.81% Trump), Nevada (49.64% Biden/44.71% Trump), North Carolina (48.41% Trump/48.19% Biden), Ohio (49.9% Trump/46.23% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.94% Biden/47.07% Trump), Texas (49.89% Trump/46.77% Biden), and Wisconsin (48.89% Biden/48.37% Trump). Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, which has one electoral vote, is also a tossup (49.68% Trump/49% Biden).

The model suggests that Biden would win Michigan, commonly identified as a battleground state, with 50.22% of the vote to Trump's 45.14%.

Since the previous forecast, our ratings for the following states have shifted away from Trump: Arizona (tilt Trump to tilt Biden), Georgia (lean Trump to tilt Trump), Iowa (lean Trump to tilt Trump), Ohio (lean Trump to tilt Trump), Texas (lean Trump to tilt Trump), and Wisconsin (tilt Trump to tilt Biden). Additionally, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district shifted from lean Trump to tilt Trump.

Map without tossups

Map with tossups

The FDL Review model emphasizes an FDL-developed metric that measures each state's fundamentals and also considers past election results, public-opinion polling with adjustments for 2016 accuracy (or lack thereof), and enthusiasm. Once all the data are inputted, the model forecasts the share of the state's popular vote that each candidate would receive if the election were held today.

This forecast is based partially on polling conducted prior to 12pm EDT on September 10, 2020.

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