Democrats will have cause for celebration tomorrow. According to the FDL Review election model, they’ll retake the U.S. House of Representatives, net four governorships, and nearly retake the U.S. Senate.
Our model accounts for public polling (adjusted for past accuracy), state fundamentals, and the relative enthusiasm of each party’s voters. By taking survey data with a grain of salt, our model guards against the sorts of polling errors that misled bettors into thinking that Brazilian President Lula da Silva would lose his bid for reelection and that Likud would cease to be the Israeli Knesset’s dominant party.
A Democratic House:
Our model predicts that Democrats will win the popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives by 8.18 percentage points and retake the chamber, 229–206.
Our model accounts for public polling (adjusted for past accuracy), state fundamentals, and the relative enthusiasm of each party’s voters. By taking survey data with a grain of salt, our model guards against the sorts of polling errors that misled bettors into thinking that Brazilian President Lula da Silva would lose his bid for reelection and that Likud would cease to be the Israeli Knesset’s dominant party.
A Democratic House:
Our model predicts that Democrats will win the popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives by 8.18 percentage points and retake the chamber, 229–206.
While our model doesn’t provide seat-by-seat House projections, here’s a spreadsheet with our unofficial ratings.
A Republican Senate:
Our model predicts that Republicans will just barely keep the Senate. Democrats will trim the GOP ranks from 53 to 50 by flipping Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, but Vice President J.D. Vance’s tie-breaking vote will maintain the GOP majority.
Our model anticipates close races across the Senate battlegrounds, with the contests in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas expected to finish within five percentage points.
Alaska is the GOP’s majority-making seat in our model. Democratic challenger Mary Peltola got 49.5% of the vote in the jungle primary to incumbent GOP Senator Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%, but our model thinks that he’ll eke out a 1.54-point victory in the final round of ranked-choice voting.
Our model predicts that Democrats will net four governorships, losing Kansas’s but flipping those of Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, and Vermont. That’ll work out to a 28–22 Democratic split across the governorships.
The Green Mountain State shifted into the Democratic column over the past week. Overall, ten gubernatorial races will be decided by less than five percentage points.
— Declan M. Hurley
A Republican Senate:
Our model predicts that Republicans will just barely keep the Senate. Democrats will trim the GOP ranks from 53 to 50 by flipping Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, but Vice President J.D. Vance’s tie-breaking vote will maintain the GOP majority.
Our model anticipates close races across the Senate battlegrounds, with the contests in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas expected to finish within five percentage points.
Alaska is the GOP’s majority-making seat in our model. Democratic challenger Mary Peltola got 49.5% of the vote in the jungle primary to incumbent GOP Senator Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%, but our model thinks that he’ll eke out a 1.54-point victory in the final round of ranked-choice voting.
Democratic Gains Across the Governorships:
Our model predicts that Democrats will net four governorships, losing Kansas’s but flipping those of Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, and Vermont. That’ll work out to a 28–22 Democratic split across the governorships.
The Green Mountain State shifted into the Democratic column over the past week. Overall, ten gubernatorial races will be decided by less than five percentage points.
— Declan M. Hurley
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