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Showing posts from August, 2020

FDL Electoral Model (8/24): Biden 297, Trump 241

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per the model, Biden commands 297 electoral votes to 241 for President Donald Trump. However, the Trump-Biden race is very close. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 219 and Trump's to 205. The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (47.71% Trump/47.48% Biden), Florida (48.93% Biden/47.13% Trump), Minnesota (49.61% Biden/46.07% Trump), Nevada (49.18% Biden/44.82% Trump), North Carolina (48.54% Trump/47.62% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.87% Biden/46.95% Trump), Virginia (49.95% Biden/45.21% Trump), and Wisconsin (48.65% Trump/48.61% Biden). The model predicts that Biden would win Michigan, commonly identified as a battleground state, with 50.26% of the vote to Trump's 44.82%. No tos

Analysis: How the Media Deceives on Coronavirus

Throughout the presidency of Donald Trump, members of the media—who see him as an abnormal, corrupt, and divisive president—have emphasized his failures and minimized his successes. For example, the Trump administration brokered a deal between the United Arab Emirates and Israel that normalized the countries' diplomatic relations and suspended Israeli annexations in the West Bank. POLITICO responded with an article entitled "Trump's Win Is a Loss for the Middle East," decrying the deal as an ego trip that hangs the Palestinians out to dry. Apparently, the media believe that reporting on Trump's successes would be missing the forest for the trees. His conduct is so reprehensible, they contend, that conceding an inch would give him and his administration undue credibility. Regardless of its merits, this practice shows that editorial considerations regularly permeate the newsroom. The media have taken a similar approach during the coronavirus pandemic. Quickly ident

What is Conservatism?

Simply stated, conservatism is the conviction that governments should consider past practice and the historical record—not untested theories and dynamic “solutions”—as they approach problems. For example, the individual ownership of property has been a boon for humanity. When developing taxation schemes and social programs to address perceived societal ills, governments should consider private property’s record of success instead of relying on abstract socialist philosophy or capitulating to the confiscatory instincts of the masses. Thus, the conservative is reflexively opposed to proposals for a wealth tax—a challenge to the sanctity of private property. Recognizing the long list of failed government interventions, the conservative sees only two types of federal action as legitimate: that which protects the citizens’ lives, liberty, and property or ensures the survival of the nation in perpetuity. Even within these parameters, the government should act in a way that intrudes only mini

How Inflation Prevents Family Formation: A Conversation with Jon Schweppe

According to the latest spot prices from Kitco Metals, an ounce of gold costs more than two thousand United States dollars, an increase of 37.2% from gold's March 2020 low point. This is an important metric, as gold is the ultimate store of value: Scarce and constantly in demand, it has uses both practical and ornamental. Gold is actually the ultimate form of money, properly defined. As I note in my July 21, 2020 editorial on Dr. Judy Shelton: "We trade goods (including our labor) for money, which -- in turn -- allows us to obtain things that we want and value. However, in order for money to function, it must be valuable for the parties involved." Gold is prized by nearly everyone and it has long been recognized as an appropriate intermediary between other things of value. Thus, the surge in the price of gold indicates a diminution in the purchasing power of the dollar relative to real money. The data suggest that this is the result of Federal Reserve policy. Between Feb