FDL Review

The FDL Review election model predicts that former President Donald Trump will win reelection, that the GOP will retake the Senate, and that Republicans will retain their House majority. Trump is expected to win the Electoral College 291–247, taking the battleground states of Arizona (by 3.81 percentage points), Georgia (1.50), North Carolina (2.45), Pennsylvania (0.18), and Wisconsin (5.21). Additionally, our model predicts that Trump will win the national popular vote by 0.73 percentage point. Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, is expected to take Michigan (by 1.45 percentage points), Minnesota (4.28), Nevada (0.73), New Hampshire (2.85), and Virginia (5.18). Giving Harris a boost at the margins, her voters are a hair more excited than Trump’s   about participating in the election. And  recent polls indicate that the vice president has momentum, winning over “late deciders” by double digits. Our model also predicts that Republicans will flip the Senate, netting three...

If the 2024 elections were held today, the FDL Review model finds that Republicans would retake the Senate and presidency while holding the House of Representatives. This is unchanged from our findings last week. Over the past week, former President Donald Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College shrank from 44 votes to six. This is because Vice President Kamala Harris captured a 0.007-point advantage in Pennsylvania, which Trump led last week by 0.11. Hurting Trump at the margins, polling indicates that Harris’s supporters are marginally more enthusiastic and certain to vote than the former president’s. This could be the result of Trump’s lackluster ground-game operation. That said, Trump’s 272 votes are a safer bet than Harris’s 266. Our model indicates that he leads in all ‘his’ states by at least 1.46 percentage points, whereas two of Harris’s states—Pennsylvania and Michigan—are within a percentage point. Trump would win the national popular vote by 1.39 percentage points if t...

If the 2024 elections were held today, the FDL Review model finds that Republicans would retake the Senate and presidency while holding the House of Representatives. According to our model, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump would win 291 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 247. This would make Trump the first president to win a second nonconsecutive term since Grover Cleveland in 1892 . Our model finds that Trump would win Arizona (by 2.75 p.p.), Georgia (1.35), North Carolina (1.86), Pennsylvania (0.11), and Wisconsin (4.85) if the election were held today. Harris would prevail in Michigan (by 0.34 p.p.), Minnesota (4.02), Nevada (0.86), New Hampshire (4.98), and Virginia (4.79). Further, our model finds that Trump would win the popular vote by 0.75 percentage point, powered by what would be the tightest presidential margins in California and New York since 2004 and 1988 , respectively. Trump would lose California by 22.83 points, compared to 29.16 in 2020 . In the ...

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per our model, Biden commands 318 electoral votes to 220 for President Donald Trump. Biden has added 21 electoral votes since our previous forecast. However, the Trump-Biden race is still up in the air. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 232 and Trump's to 126. The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (48.29% Biden/47.14% Trump), Florida (48.83% Biden/47.55% Trump), Georgia (48.64% Trump/46.95% Biden), Iowa (49.91% Trump/46.54% Biden), Minnesota (49.79% Biden/45.81% Trump), Nevada (49.64% Biden/44.71% Trump), North Carolina (48.41% Trump/48.19% Biden), Ohio (49.9% Trump/46.23% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.94% Biden/47.07% Trump), Texas (49.89% Trump/46.77% Biden), and Wisconsin (48...

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per the model, Biden commands 297 electoral votes to 241 for President Donald Trump. However, the Trump-Biden race is very close. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 219 and Trump's to 205. The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (47.71% Trump/47.48% Biden), Florida (48.93% Biden/47.13% Trump), Minnesota (49.61% Biden/46.07% Trump), Nevada (49.18% Biden/44.82% Trump), North Carolina (48.54% Trump/47.62% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.87% Biden/46.95% Trump), Virginia (49.95% Biden/45.21% Trump), and Wisconsin (48.65% Trump/48.61% Biden). The model predicts that Biden would win Michigan, commonly identified as a battleground state, with 50.26% of the vote to Trump's 44.82%. No tos...

Save for any unforeseen developments, FDL Review predicts that the Republicans will keep control of the United States Senate in 2018. The GOP will have 54 seats compared to 46 for the Democrats, based on our projections. We rate Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Tennessee, and Indiana as "lean" Republican states, based on polls, early voting returns, and past voting trends. Texas and North Dakota are "likely" Republican, and Utah, Wyoming, and Nebraska are "solid" Republican. Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Montana, and Michigan "lean" Democratic, although all five races are tightening in favor of the GOP. Our model is to avoid "toss-up" classifications, for they indicate an incapable, indecisive forecaster, but Montana and Florida could be reasonably indicated as toss-ups. Rick Scott, the Republican in Florida, has held a tiny lead in a few recent polls, but we rated the race "lean" Democratic due to the small (yet relatively co...