Skip to main content

Posts

Our Election Diarist's Final Entry (11/2/20)

America, we have reached the eve of the most important election in our lifetimes. The fate of the United States is on the ballot. Allow me to offer my predictions and my recommendation. President Donald Trump The State of the Race: Today, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are making their final rounds on the campaign trail. Biden spoke in Cleveland and will proceed to Pennsylvania, where he will spend the remainder of his day. Trump started his day in North Carolina and will proceed to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. As the story has been all campaign, Trump will be in front of a large crowd and Biden will be speaking in front of a few Honda Civics. Enthusiasm is in favor of Trump headed into election day. Headed into tomorrow, the states to watch are Minnesota (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) and Florida (29). As I noted above, it is very telling that both Biden and Trump are spending the majority of their final day on the trail in Pennsylvania. Al
Recent posts

Our Election Diarist: The Momentum is With President Trump

We are now a week away from the election that will change America forever. Considering all that has happened in 2020, it is an accomplishment that we made it to this most crucial point. The stage is set. President Donald Trump is facing off against former Vice President Joe Biden for the position of “Leader of the Free World.” President Trump in New Hampshire Regardless of what anyone says, no one knows who is going to win this election. If an outsider were to predict the election results based on enthusiasm, Trump would win every state and the Electoral College. Trump supporters for the most part are proud, vocal, present at rallies, and excited to vote. Biden supporters are for the most part quiet, reserved, not present in any campaign events and quite honestly embarrassed that their party leader is Biden. The enthusiasm is so great for Trump that many people are unable to conceive how many pollsters have Biden as the resounding favorite. Just a few days ago, Trump held a small meet

The Supreme Court: What's Next?

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a celebrated lawyer, jurist, and cultural icon, passed away on Friday at age 87. My first instinct was to post “Requiescat in pace, Justice Ginsburg,” but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., New York) had different ideas. He tweeted, “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president.” The late Justice Ginsburg Keep in mind that the Senate has the constitutional power to “advise and consent” to presidential appointments to the courts. In 2016, the Senate—which had a 54-46 Republican majority in part due to voter anger at former President Barack Obama—declined to consider Judge Merrick Garland, Obama’s nominee for the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s seat. The Senate’s stated rationale, given by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Kentucky), was Obama’s status as a lame-duck president—and the upcoming 2016 presidential election. This mov

FDL Electoral Model (9/10): Biden 318, Trump 220

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per our model, Biden commands 318 electoral votes to 220 for President Donald Trump. Biden has added 21 electoral votes since our previous forecast. However, the Trump-Biden race is still up in the air. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 232 and Trump's to 126. The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (48.29% Biden/47.14% Trump), Florida (48.83% Biden/47.55% Trump), Georgia (48.64% Trump/46.95% Biden), Iowa (49.91% Trump/46.54% Biden), Minnesota (49.79% Biden/45.81% Trump), Nevada (49.64% Biden/44.71% Trump), North Carolina (48.41% Trump/48.19% Biden), Ohio (49.9% Trump/46.23% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.94% Biden/47.07% Trump), Texas (49.89% Trump/46.77% Biden), and Wisconsin (48

Our Election Diarist's Campaign Trail Update (9/8/20)

The direction of the Biden campaign has been a question all along, but is now clear that the Biden campaign is simply following the cues of the Trump campaign. Joe Biden (NBC News) The recent uptick in activity amongst the Biden campaign is no surprise. Quite coincidentally, the shift in strategy comes a week after the Republican National Convention in which Republicans took an optimistic and patriotic approach in addressing the state of the nation. It is clear amongst polls that since the conventions President Donald Trump has the momentum on his side as he battles former Vice President Joe Biden. Though Biden is still leading, Trump has narrowed the gap. The shift toward Trump has forced Biden out of his bunker. The reason for Biden's emergence is evident: He realizes that the Republicans and Trump have gained momentum. This has not been a plan of the Biden campaign all along as their hopes would be that Biden would make as few public appearances as possible. The Biden campaign i

FDL Electoral Model (8/24): Biden 297, Trump 241

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per the model, Biden commands 297 electoral votes to 241 for President Donald Trump. However, the Trump-Biden race is very close. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 219 and Trump's to 205. The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (47.71% Trump/47.48% Biden), Florida (48.93% Biden/47.13% Trump), Minnesota (49.61% Biden/46.07% Trump), Nevada (49.18% Biden/44.82% Trump), North Carolina (48.54% Trump/47.62% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.87% Biden/46.95% Trump), Virginia (49.95% Biden/45.21% Trump), and Wisconsin (48.65% Trump/48.61% Biden). The model predicts that Biden would win Michigan, commonly identified as a battleground state, with 50.26% of the vote to Trump's 44.82%. No tos

Analysis: How the Media Deceives on Coronavirus

Throughout the presidency of Donald Trump, members of the media—who see him as an abnormal, corrupt, and divisive president—have emphasized his failures and minimized his successes. For example, the Trump administration brokered a deal between the United Arab Emirates and Israel that normalized the countries' diplomatic relations and suspended Israeli annexations in the West Bank. POLITICO responded with an article entitled "Trump's Win Is a Loss for the Middle East," decrying the deal as an ego trip that hangs the Palestinians out to dry. Apparently, the media believe that reporting on Trump's successes would be missing the forest for the trees. His conduct is so reprehensible, they contend, that conceding an inch would give him and his administration undue credibility. Regardless of its merits, this practice shows that editorial considerations regularly permeate the newsroom. The media have taken a similar approach during the coronavirus pandemic. Quickly ident