If the 2024 elections were held today, the FDL Review model finds that Republicans would retake the Senate and presidency while holding the House of Representatives. According to our model, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump would win 291 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 247. This would make Trump the first president to win a second nonconsecutive term since Grover Cleveland in 1892 . Our model finds that Trump would win Arizona (by 2.75 p.p.), Georgia (1.35), North Carolina (1.86), Pennsylvania (0.11), and Wisconsin (4.85) if the election were held today. Harris would prevail in Michigan (by 0.34 p.p.), Minnesota (4.02), Nevada (0.86), New Hampshire (4.98), and Virginia (4.79). Further, our model finds that Trump would win the popular vote by 0.75 percentage point, powered by what would be the tightest presidential margins in California and New York since 2004 and 1988 , respectively. Trump would lose California by 22.83 points, compared to 29.16 in 2020 . In the
Constitutional conservatives’ primary worldly commitment is to the Constitution, which lists our fundamental freedoms, defines the national government’s limited powers, and frames a political structure oriented toward the maximization of liberty. Former President Donald Trump’s promises and record won over many constitutional conservatives in 2016 and 2020. However, Trump has shown that his second administration would be a disappointment to constitutional conservatives, who should take a principled pass on his 2024 bid even though polls show that he would beat President Joe Biden. Trump’s Record Will Not Be His 2024 Roadmap Factbase’s archive indicates that Trump has used the phrase “constitutional conservative” precisely once. However, shortly before Trump announced his 2016 bid, he aligned himself squarely with constitutional conservatives by tweeting this sage George Washington quote : “The Constitution is the guide which I never will abandon.” And, about a year later, Trump proc