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Showing posts from September, 2020

The Supreme Court: What's Next?

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a celebrated lawyer, jurist, and cultural icon, passed away on Friday at age 87. My first instinct was to post “Requiescat in pace, Justice Ginsburg,” but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., New York) had different ideas.
He tweeted, “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president.”

Keep in mind that the Senate has the constitutional power to “advise and consent” to presidential appointments to the courts. In 2016, the Senate—which had a 54-46 Republican majority in part due to voter anger at former President Barack Obama—declined to consider Judge Merrick Garland, Obama’s nominee for the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s seat. The Senate’s stated rationale, given by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Kentucky), was Obama’s status as a lame-duck president—and the upcoming 2106 presidential election.
This move was controversial among De…

FDL Electoral Model (9/10): Biden 318, Trump 220

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per our model, Biden commands 318 electoral votes to 220 for President Donald Trump. Biden has added 21 electoral votes since our previous forecast.

However, the Trump-Biden race is still up in the air. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 232 and Trump's to 126.

The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (48.29% Biden/47.14% Trump), Florida (48.83% Biden/47.55% Trump), Georgia (48.64% Trump/46.95% Biden), Iowa (49.91% Trump/46.54% Biden), Minnesota (49.79% Biden/45.81% Trump), Nevada (49.64% Biden/44.71% Trump), North Carolina (48.41% Trump/48.19% Biden), Ohio (49.9% Trump/46.23% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.94% Biden/47.07% Trump), Texas (49.89% Trump/46.77% Biden), and Wisconsin (48.…

Our Election Diarist's Campaign Trail Update (9/8/20)

The direction of the Biden campaign has been a question all along, but is now clear that the Biden campaign is simply following the cues of the Trump campaign.

The recent uptick in activity amongst the Biden campaign is no surprise. Quite coincidentally, the shift in strategy comes a week after the Republican National Convention in which Republicans took an optimistic and patriotic approach in addressing the state of the nation. It is clear amongst polls that since the conventions President Donald Trump has the momentum on his side as he battles former Vice President Joe Biden. Though Biden is still leading, Trump has narrowed the gap. The shift toward Trump has forced Biden out of his bunker.
The reason for Biden's emergence is evident: He realizes that the Republicans and Trump have gained momentum. This has not been a plan of the Biden campaign all along as their hopes would be that Biden would make as few public appearances as possible. The Biden campaign is now thinking on the …