Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from September, 2020

FDL Electoral Model (9/10): Biden 318, Trump 220

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per our model, Biden commands 318 electoral votes to 220 for President Donald Trump. Biden has added 21 electoral votes since our previous forecast. However, the Trump-Biden race is still up in the air. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 232 and Trump's to 126. The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (48.29% Biden/47.14% Trump), Florida (48.83% Biden/47.55% Trump), Georgia (48.64% Trump/46.95% Biden), Iowa (49.91% Trump/46.54% Biden), Minnesota (49.79% Biden/45.81% Trump), Nevada (49.64% Biden/44.71% Trump), North Carolina (48.41% Trump/48.19% Biden), Ohio (49.9% Trump/46.23% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.94% Biden/47.07% Trump), Texas (49.89% Trump/46.77% Biden), and Wisconsin (48...