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Showing posts from October, 2018

FDL Projects (10/24): GOP Holds Senate, Wins Three Additional Seats

Based on a race-by-race analysis, FDL Review projects that the Republicans will hold a four-seat majority in the United States Senate after the 2018 midterm elections.

The GOP will hold 54 seats and the Democrats 46, according to our research. This will allow the Republicans to easily confirm judges (and justices) appointed by President Donald Trump. 
Additionally, a four-seat lead will put the GOP in a strong position ahead of tougher 2020 Senate races, where Republican seats will be contested in purple states like Colorado, North Carolina, Maine, and Iowa.

FDL Review predicts that Republicans are favored to win the highly-contested seats in Nevada, Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri. Democrats, based on our projections, are favored to win the seats in Montana, Minnesota (special election), Wisconsin, Michigan, West Virginia, New Jersey, and Florida. Other seats on the map are "likely" going to one party or the other, and some are "safe" for one party or the other.
We…

John James Gaining Ground in Michigan

In Michigan's U.S. Senate race, which was expected to be a cakewalk for incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow, Republican candidate John James is surging.


A poll taken by Ipsos in September showed James behind by twenty points, but a Tarrance Group survey released today shows him behind by only seven points.

Tarrance Group found that James is polling at 41%, while Stabenow has 48% support (605 likely voters were surveyed). While seven points is a tough lead to beat, the key development is that Stabenow has yet to reach a majority of the vote, an indication that the race is far from over.

James' surge could be attributed to the fact that he participated in two debates with Stabenow (on the 14th and 15th of October), which increased his profile among Michiganders. Name recognition, of course, has been a consistent struggle for James, who is not a career politician like Stabenow.

The 37-year-old James is a West Point graduate who spent eight years in the U.S. Army. He served in comb…

Senator Cruz Holds Lead in Texas Senate Race

In the first Texas Senate poll published since mid-September, CBS YouGov found that incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz holds a six-point lead over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke, a congressman from El Paso.


50% of Texans will support Ted Cruz and 44% will support Beto O'Rourke, with 78% of voters having firmly made up their minds. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 points.

This comes after O'Rourke, embroiled in several scandals, participated in a debate with Cruz, who challenged his positions on law enforcement, immigration, and Second Amendment rights.

Voters see Cruz as being better on all four issues presented to them: healthcare, immigration, gun policy, and crime. This comes as 48% of Texans see gangs and gang violence as a "big problem" in their state and 63% see illegal immigration as a "big problem" in their state.

Cruz's race is rated as a "tossup" by RealClearPolitics, but he has held a large lead in most September an…

Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Standards of Conduct

On Saturday, the United States Senate confirmed Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court with a 50-48 vote, and he was quickly sworn in. The new justice's lifetime tenure, which will shift the balance of the court to the originalist faction, will commence on Tuesday.


The senatorial affirmation capped off a contentious three-month nomination period in which Kavanaugh was tarred as a partisan, accused by three women of sexual misconduct, and investigated by the FBI for a seventh time.

Kavanaugh's most credible accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, testified before the Senate on September 27, 2018, stating that an inebriated Kavanaugh had groped her in 1982.

Over the course of the hearing, Ford was questioned by the chief of the Special Victims Division in the Maricopa County Attorney's Office, Rachel Mitchell, who subsequently wrote a report on the findings that she extracted from the accuser's testimony.

Mitchell, certainly an authority with regards to sex crimes, wrote,

In…

Editorial: Voter ID, a Popular Solution, Needed in N.C.

Rasmussen Reports found that 67% of likely voters support valid photo identification as a prerequisite for casting a ballot, while only 28% are opposed.

While voter fraud is rare in the United States, it is not nonexistent: The Heritage Foundation found 1,145 proven instances of voter fraud, declaring that "[p]reventing, deterring, and prosecuting election fraud is essential to protecting the integrity of our voting process."


Voter identification, of course, would be a basic line of defense in the effort to deter voter fraud, as requirements represent a common-sense solution for alleviating any lingering questions regarding the sanctity of the American ballot box.

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As is the case with the nation overall, voter identification requirements are a popular concept in the state of North Carolina. Per The Fayetteville Observer, "A survey that High Point University conducted in September 2016 said 66 percent of North Carolina’s likely voters favored it, while 30 percent oppo…

Rasmussen Reports: President Trump's Approval is at 51%

President Donald Trump holds a 51% approval rating among likely voters, according to Friday's survey by Rasmussen Reports. 48% of voters disapprove of the president's performance.

Regarding the results, Rasmussen said, "This is Trump’s highest Presidential Approval Index rating since early March of last year, shortly after he first took office."


At this same point in former President Barack Obama's tenure, he held a 48% approval rating in Rasmussen's survey.

Rasmussen Reports' poll comes as U.S. employment reports show that the economy added 134,000 jobs in September, below the 180,000 that were expected, and that the unemployment rate, 3.7%, is at its lowest level since 1969.

GOP Gains in Generic Ballot, President Trump's Approval at 50%

A new poll by IBD/TIPP found that the Republicans trail the Democrats by only two points in the generic ballot for the 2018 congressional elections, down from 11 points last month. This comes as President Donald Trump has rallied for Republican candidates nationwide and put the midterm elections in stark, life-or-death terms.


The IBD poll demonstrates that Democrats' advantage among independents plunged by eight points in one month. In September, they had 49% support among the bloc; now, they have 41% support. The GOP is still four points behind with independents, at 37%, but they're up by seven points compared to last month.

Regarding the results, IBD reported that the "Democrats' all-out attack on Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh, which culminated in a blisteringly partisan hearing last Thursday, may have backfired on the party just before the November elections."

The IBD poll comes as a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey showed the Democratic enthusiasm…

Missouri, Arizona, West Virginia Trending Toward GOP

U.S. Senate seats in Missouri, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Arizona continue to shift toward the Republican column amid surging voter enthusiasm among conservatives.

In Missouri, Republican candidate Josh Hawley, the state attorney general, led incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill in two polls released on Thursday.

A poll by McLaughlin & Associates for Missouri Rising Action showed Hawley ahead of McCaskill by eight points, up from four points in their June survey. Hawley's expanded lead can be ascribed to independents, a bloc that now supports him by a twelve-point margin.
The McLaughlin poll also found that a majority of Missouri voters, 51%, disapprove of McCaskill, whose husband has benefited from hundreds of millions in federal subsidies over the course of her tenure.
Another Missouri poll, conducted by Vox Populi, shows McCaskill trailing Hawley by two points. The survey also found that 49% of Missourians seek the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Cou…