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Showing posts from September, 2018

FDL Projects: GOP Holds Senate, Wins Two Additional Seats

FDL Review, which pegged Donald Trump at 269 votes on November 7, 2016 when other outlets had him losing the election by a wide electoral margin, predicts that the GOP will win 53 seats in the Senate and that the Democrats will take 45.
Two races -- in West Virginia and New Jersey -- are tossups, judging by recent polling. West Virginia is traditionally conservative; New Jersey is consistently Democratic.
The races in Arizona and Nevada are tentatively rated "Lean Democratic" in our forecast, but we need more polling to make a more accurate prediction. Virginia is rated as "Solid Democratic" by some handicappers, but we peg it at "Likely" as Corey Stewart was in striking distance of incumbent Democratic Tim Kaine in a recent Cyngal poll.
We have rated North Dakota, Missouri, Tennessee, Indiana, and Florida as "Lean Republican" contests due to recent polling and state trends. Governor Rick Scott (R) was behind in two recent polls; the race may b…

Josh Hawley is the Clear Frontrunner in Missouri

As the 2018 U.S. Senate race in Missouri enters the final stretch, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, the Republican nominee, has maintained a consistent lead against incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill. The Missouri race is rated as a tossup by most handicappers, and it will determine the balance of the Senate.


Two late September polls, including one released on Saturday, demonstrate Hawley's advantage in a state that President Donald Trump won by 20 points in 2016.

A Remington Research poll conducted over two days, the 26th and the 27th of September, shows Hawley ahead by two points among likely voters. The survey had a sample size of 1,555, with a 2.5% margin of error.

Asked whether "the Supreme Court confirmation process for Brett Kavanaugh made you more likely to vote for Claire McCaskill or less likely to vote for Claire McCaskill," 49% of voters said they're less likely to vote for the incumbent.

Only 42% said that they're more likely to vote fo…

West Virginia Re-Emerges as 2018 Battleground

West Virginia was won by Donald Trump by 42 points in the 2016 presidential election: The president, running on a message of renewal for blue-collar Americans, took 69% of the vote and every county in the state.

In the wake of Clinton's big defeat, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin -- up for reelection in 2018 -- immediately appeared to be an endangered incumbent.


Democratic spirits were uplifted when it became clear that Don Blankenship, a disgraced coal baron, had a chance of becoming the Republican candidate. However, state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, a highly-qualified candidate, took the party mantle instead. He is well-known for leading "a coalition of 27 states and a host of industry groups in their fight against new limits on carbon emissions," which was successful in the courts.

In West Virginia, which produces 15% of the nation's fossil fuels, former President Barack Obama's so-called "war on coal" had real-world ramifications. As a result…

Judge Kavanaugh Rejects Ramirez's Allegations

A week after California professor Christine Blasey Ford alleged that an intoxicated Judge Brett Kavanaugh groped her at a high-school party in 1982, a second woman -- Deborah Ramirez -- leveled a sexual misconduct accusation against the president's Supreme Court nominee.


In a report published by The New Yorker, Ramirez recounted that at a 1983 dorm party for at Yale University, then-18-year-old college freshman Kavanaugh exposed his genitals. Ramirez stated that while she was drunk at the time, she clearly heard that the people around her identified the flasher as "Brett Kavanaugh."

Kavanaugh responded quickly with statement of denial, writing,

This alleged event from 35 years ago did not happen. The people who knew me then know that this did not happen, and have said so. This is a smear, plain and simple. I look forward to testifying on Thursday about the truth, and defending my good name—and the reputation for character and integrity I have spent a lifetime building—ag…

Reactions to Allegations Against Judge Kavanaugh Split

Christine Ford, who accused Judge Brett Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct, donated money to the Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Friends Of Bernie Sanders, a PAC that supported the Vermont senator's 2016 bid for the presidency.


Ford initially made her allegations in a letter submitted to the Federal Bureau of Investigation by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-California). Ford came out as the accuser in a Washington Post report published on Sunday, recounting her alleged 1982 experience with Kavanaugh in detail. Per the article, Ford took a polygraph test that confirmed that she was telling the truth.

Ford's donations to Democratic causes were uncovered by Ryan Saavedra, a reporter at The Daily Wire:

Judge Brett Kavanaugh's accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, has donated money to the Democratic National Committee (DNC), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), and Friends Of Bernie Sanders. pic.twitter.com/VDvolMqQrj — Ryan Saa…

Judge Kavanaugh's Assault Accuser Emerges

In the summer of 1982, when Ronald Reagan was in his second year as president, a heavily intoxicated Brett Kavanaugh allegedly engaged in a nonconsensual sexual encounter with Christine Ford, now was psychologist in California, per an account published in The Washington Post.


The encounter, as recounted by Ford, allegedly occurred at a party with four boys, Ford, and no parents. Ford had heard about the gathering by word-of-mouth, and there, Kavanaugh -- now a judge on the D.C. Court of Appeals and President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee -- and his friend, Mark Judge, allegedly lured her into a bedroom.

Kavanaugh, "hindered by intoxication," struggled to remove Ford's one-piece bathing suit, and the encounter was stunted altogether when Judge, in an apparently playful fashion, jumped on Kavanaugh and Ford, allowing Ford to dash away.

Ford's allegations were initially advanced in a letter sent by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-California) to the Federal Bureau of…