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Showing posts from July, 2021

Analysis: What to Make of Republicans' Chances in 2021

Last week’s polls show the potential for Democratic underperformance in 2021 and 2022. President Joe Biden’s approval rating dropped six points in a month in Gallup polling , and Emerson College’s survey of California indicates that Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom will be fighting for his political life ahead of the September 14th recall election. Gallup pegs Biden’s approval rating at 50%, with 45% disapproving, down from 57% approval in April and 56% in June. Former President Donald Trump achieved 49% approval per Gallup on several occasions and never crossed the 50% threshold, but the 2016 and 2020 elections indicated that polls systemically understate Trump’s support among American voters. Democrats and independents, not Republican partisans, are the reason for Biden’s plunge. His support among Democrats declined from 98% in February to 90% today, and he similarly went from 61% to 48% among independents. 12% of Republicans give Biden good ratings, up one percentage point from Fe