FDL Review, which pegged Donald Trump at 269 votes on November 7, 2016 when other outlets had him losing the election by a wide electoral margin, predicts that the GOP will win 53 seats in the Senate and that the Democrats will take 45.
Two races -- in West Virginia and New Jersey -- are tossups, judging by recent polling. West Virginia is traditionally conservative; New Jersey is consistently Democratic.
The races in Arizona and Nevada are tentatively rated "Lean Democratic" in our forecast, but we need more polling to make a more accurate prediction. Virginia is rated as "Solid Democratic" by some handicappers, but we peg it at "Likely" as Corey Stewart was in striking distance of incumbent Democratic Tim Kaine in a recent Cyngal poll.
We have rated North Dakota, Missouri, Tennessee, Indiana, and Florida as "Lean Republican" contests due to recent polling and state trends. Governor Rick Scott (R) was behind in two recent polls; the race may be moved to the "tossup" column if he doesn't regain the consistent lead that he held prior.
If Gary Johnson gains more ground in New Mexico, we may move the race towards the "Likely Democratic" column.
In Wisconsin, Leah Vukmir (R) recently trailed incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) by only two points; Baldwin has since regained a heftier lead, and as such, our current rating is "Lean Democratic." If Vukmir's deficit shrinks ahead of November 6th, the race may end up in our "tossup" column.
|Our Senate projections|