Two Democratic-leaning states—New Jersey and Virginia—are holding statewide elections in 2025. The FDL Review election model predicts that Democrats will sweep these elections, retaining the governorship of New Jersey and flipping the governorship, lieutenant governorship, and attorney generalship of Virginia.
The races for New Jersey governor and Virginia attorney general are, however, exceedingly close.
Our model considers public polling (adjusted for past accuracy), state fundamentals, and voter enthusiasm for each candidate.
New Jersey:
Our model predicts that Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill will narrowly defeat Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli in the Garden State’s gubernatorial race, winning by 2.55 percentage points.
Boosting Sherrill’s chances of victory, New Jersey’s fundamentals favor Democrats. It is a solidly blue state where 38% of voters are Democrats and only 25% are Republicans. Indeed, it last elected a GOP governor in 2013 and hasn’t voted for a GOP presidential nominee since 1988. President Donald Trump lost there by 5.91 points in 2024, even while outrunning his previous performances and pre-election polls.
On the other hand, Ciattarelli leads by more than a percentage point in our adjusted polling average. And our enthusiasm index suggests that his voters are 23% more excited to vote than Sherrill’s.
This isn’t Ciattarelli’s first rodeo. He was also the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2021, when incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy defeated him by 3.21 points. Even in defeat, though, Ciattarelli outperformed polls that showed him down by an average of eight points.
We expect Ciattarelli to improve on his 2021 result, but not by enough to win.
Virginia:
Our model predicts that Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger, an incumbent congresswoman, will defeat Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, Virginia’s lieutenant governor, by 10.78 percentage points.
Boosting Spanberger’s chances of victory, she leads by 13.5 in our adjusted polling average. And, while Virginia is less strongly Democratic than New Jersey, it is quite blue. Republicans last won a presidential election there in 2004, and Trump lost Old Dominion by 5.78 points in 2024.
However, excitement for each candidate is roughly the same, with our enthusiasm index indicating that Spanberger’s voters are seven percent more enthusiastic than Earle-Sears’.
Our model also predicts that Virginia will elect a Democratic lieutenant governor, with Democratic nominee Ghazala Hashmi leading Republican nominee John Reid by 4.78 percentage points.
Virginia is also expected to elect a Democratic attorney general, with Democrat Jay Jones leading Republican incumbent Jason Miyares by 1.46 percentage points.
Early polls suggested Miyares would lose by much more. Revivifying his campaign, however, were leaked text messages indicating that Democratic nominee Jay Jones wished the death of GOP former House Speaker Todd Gilbert and his children. Now, our adjusted polling average has Miyares up by 0.76 point. We remain bearish on Miyares because we think that, given Virginia’s fundamentals and our expectation that Earle-Sears will lose badly, Jones will win the lion’s share of those who claim to be undecided.
Losing Old Dominion’s three top offices would be a setback for the Virginia GOP, who won them in 2021 amid sinking approval ratings for then-President Joe Biden. But the 2025 outcome might’ve been different if the Virginia Constitution didn’t bar governors from pursuing a second consecutive term: Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin has a positive approval rating.
Past Performance:
Our model pointed to President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. In 2024, it correctly predicted the clean Republican sweep of the House, Senate, and presidency (along with Trump’s popular-vote victory). Click here for our 2024 scorecard.
— Declan M. Hurley
The races for New Jersey governor and Virginia attorney general are, however, exceedingly close.
Our model considers public polling (adjusted for past accuracy), state fundamentals, and voter enthusiasm for each candidate.
New Jersey:
Our model predicts that Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill will narrowly defeat Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli in the Garden State’s gubernatorial race, winning by 2.55 percentage points.
Boosting Sherrill’s chances of victory, New Jersey’s fundamentals favor Democrats. It is a solidly blue state where 38% of voters are Democrats and only 25% are Republicans. Indeed, it last elected a GOP governor in 2013 and hasn’t voted for a GOP presidential nominee since 1988. President Donald Trump lost there by 5.91 points in 2024, even while outrunning his previous performances and pre-election polls.
On the other hand, Ciattarelli leads by more than a percentage point in our adjusted polling average. And our enthusiasm index suggests that his voters are 23% more excited to vote than Sherrill’s.
This isn’t Ciattarelli’s first rodeo. He was also the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2021, when incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy defeated him by 3.21 points. Even in defeat, though, Ciattarelli outperformed polls that showed him down by an average of eight points.
We expect Ciattarelli to improve on his 2021 result, but not by enough to win.
Virginia:
Our model predicts that Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger, an incumbent congresswoman, will defeat Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, Virginia’s lieutenant governor, by 10.78 percentage points.
Boosting Spanberger’s chances of victory, she leads by 13.5 in our adjusted polling average. And, while Virginia is less strongly Democratic than New Jersey, it is quite blue. Republicans last won a presidential election there in 2004, and Trump lost Old Dominion by 5.78 points in 2024.
However, excitement for each candidate is roughly the same, with our enthusiasm index indicating that Spanberger’s voters are seven percent more enthusiastic than Earle-Sears’.
Our model also predicts that Virginia will elect a Democratic lieutenant governor, with Democratic nominee Ghazala Hashmi leading Republican nominee John Reid by 4.78 percentage points.
Virginia is also expected to elect a Democratic attorney general, with Democrat Jay Jones leading Republican incumbent Jason Miyares by 1.46 percentage points.
Early polls suggested Miyares would lose by much more. Revivifying his campaign, however, were leaked text messages indicating that Democratic nominee Jay Jones wished the death of GOP former House Speaker Todd Gilbert and his children. Now, our adjusted polling average has Miyares up by 0.76 point. We remain bearish on Miyares because we think that, given Virginia’s fundamentals and our expectation that Earle-Sears will lose badly, Jones will win the lion’s share of those who claim to be undecided.
Losing Old Dominion’s three top offices would be a setback for the Virginia GOP, who won them in 2021 amid sinking approval ratings for then-President Joe Biden. But the 2025 outcome might’ve been different if the Virginia Constitution didn’t bar governors from pursuing a second consecutive term: Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin has a positive approval rating.
Past Performance:
Our model pointed to President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. In 2024, it correctly predicted the clean Republican sweep of the House, Senate, and presidency (along with Trump’s popular-vote victory). Click here for our 2024 scorecard.
— Declan M. Hurley
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