FDL Review

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per our model, Biden commands 318 electoral votes to 220 for President Donald Trump. Biden has added 21 electoral votes since our previous forecast. However, the Trump-Biden race is still up in the air. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 232 and Trump's to 126. The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (48.29% Biden/47.14% Trump), Florida (48.83% Biden/47.55% Trump), Georgia (48.64% Trump/46.95% Biden), Iowa (49.91% Trump/46.54% Biden), Minnesota (49.79% Biden/45.81% Trump), Nevada (49.64% Biden/44.71% Trump), North Carolina (48.41% Trump/48.19% Biden), Ohio (49.9% Trump/46.23% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.94% Biden/47.07% Trump), Texas (49.89% Trump/46.77% Biden), and Wisconsin (48...

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, the FDL Review election model predicts that former Vice President Joe Biden would narrowly win the Electoral College. Per the model, Biden commands 297 electoral votes to 241 for President Donald Trump. However, the Trump-Biden race is very close. When states where neither candidate commands 50% of the vote are shifted to the "tossup" column, Biden's electoral tally drops to 219 and Trump's to 205. The FDL Review model identifies the following states as tossups: Arizona (47.71% Trump/47.48% Biden), Florida (48.93% Biden/47.13% Trump), Minnesota (49.61% Biden/46.07% Trump), Nevada (49.18% Biden/44.82% Trump), North Carolina (48.54% Trump/47.62% Biden), Pennsylvania (49.87% Biden/46.95% Trump), Virginia (49.95% Biden/45.21% Trump), and Wisconsin (48.65% Trump/48.61% Biden). The model predicts that Biden would win Michigan, commonly identified as a battleground state, with 50.26% of the vote to Trump's 44.82%. No tos...

Save for any unforeseen developments, FDL Review predicts that the Republicans will keep control of the United States Senate in 2018. The GOP will have 54 seats compared to 46 for the Democrats, based on our projections. We rate Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Tennessee, and Indiana as "lean" Republican states, based on polls, early voting returns, and past voting trends. Texas and North Dakota are "likely" Republican, and Utah, Wyoming, and Nebraska are "solid" Republican. Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Montana, and Michigan "lean" Democratic, although all five races are tightening in favor of the GOP. Our model is to avoid "toss-up" classifications, for they indicate an incapable, indecisive forecaster, but Montana and Florida could be reasonably indicated as toss-ups. Rick Scott, the Republican in Florida, has held a tiny lead in a few recent polls, but we rated the race "lean" Democratic due to the small (yet relatively co...

Based on a race-by-race analysis, FDL Review projects that the Republicans will hold a four-seat majority in the United States Senate after the 2018 midterm elections. The GOP will hold 54 seats and the Democrats 46, according to our research. This will allow the Republicans to easily confirm judges (and justices) appointed by President Donald Trump.  Additionally, a four-seat lead will put the GOP in a strong position ahead of tougher 2020 Senate races, where Republican seats will be contested in purple states like Colorado, North Carolina, Maine, and Iowa. FDL Review predicts that Republicans are favored to win the highly-contested seats in Nevada, Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri. Democrats, based on our projections, are favored to win the seats in Montana, Minnesota (special election), Wisconsin, Michigan, West Virginia, New Jersey, and Florida. Other seats on the map are "likely" going to one party or the other, and some are "safe" for one party or th...

FDL Review, which pegged Donald Trump at 269 votes on November 7, 2016 when other outlets had him losing the election by a wide electoral margin, predicts that the GOP will win 53 seats in the Senate and that the Democrats will take 45. Two races -- in West Virginia and New Jersey -- are tossups, judging by recent polling. West Virginia is traditionally conservative; New Jersey is consistently Democratic. The races in Arizona and Nevada are tentatively rated "Lean Democratic" in our forecast, but we need more polling to make a more accurate prediction. Virginia is rated as "Solid Democratic" by some handicappers, but we peg it at "Likely" as Corey Stewart was in striking distance of incumbent Democratic Tim Kaine in a recent Cyngal poll . We have rated North Dakota, Missouri, Tennessee, Indiana, and Florida as "Lean Republican" contests due to recent polling and state trends. Governor Rick Scott (R) was behind in two recent polls; t...