Two Democratic-leaning states—New Jersey and Virginia—are holding statewide elections in 2025. The FDL Review election model predicts that Democrats will sweep these elections, retaining the governorship of New Jersey and flipping the governorship, lieutenant governorship, and attorney generalship of Virginia. The races for New Jersey governor and Virginia attorney general are, however, exceedingly close. Our model considers public polling (adjusted for past accuracy), state fundamentals, and voter enthusiasm for each candidate. New Jersey: Our model predicts that Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill will narrowly defeat Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli in the Garden State’s gubernatorial race, winning by 2.55 percentage points. Boosting Sherrill’s chances of victory, New Jersey’s fundamentals favor Democrats. It is a solidly blue state where 38% of voters are Democrats and only 25% are Republicans. Indeed, it last elected a GOP governor in 2013 and hasn’t voted for ...