The clean Democratic sweep in the 2025 elections came as no surprise to FDL Review: On November 3, we correctly predicted that Democrats would win the races for New Jersey governor and for Virginia governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. But we underestimated Democrats’ performance by an average of 6.25 percentage points.
This article assesses where we went right and wrong in our 2025 predictions, concluding with recommendations for how Republicans can fare better in 2026.
New Jersey:
Our model predicted that Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill would defeat Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli by 2.55 percentage points. Current results show that we were directionally correct but that we underestimated the magnitude of Sherrill’s win by 10.96 points—the single worst error in FDL modeling history.
Two factors contributed to our Garden State blunder.
First, the governor-elect massively outperformed pre-election polls. Bad polling is nothing new for New Jersey, which a recent Wall Street Journal report described as “a particularly hard state to survey.” And it is impossible to predict in which direction New Jersey polls will be off, so this is probably an unfixable source of error.
Second, our model gave Ciattarelli far too much credit for the fact that his supporters registered as 23% more excited to vote than Sherrill’s. That on-paper enthusiasm clearly did not materialize at the polls.
Virginia:
Our model fared much better in the Old Dominion. We correctly predicted Democratic victories in the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. And, while we underestimated Democrats’ winning margins, we did so by an average of only 4.68 percentage points.
Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger defeated GOP nominee Winsome Earle-Sears by 3.70 percentage points more than our model anticipated. Lieutenant Governor–elect Ghazala Hashmi’s winning margin outpaced our model’s prediction by 5.94 points. And Attorney General–elect Jay Jones beat GOP incumbent Jason Miyares by 4.40 points more than our model expected.
As in New Jersey, we were poorly served by public polling, which had Republicans winning the attorney general race and coming closer in the other two races than they actually did. That polling would be off in Virginia, however, didn’t come as a surprise to us: “[O]ur adjusted polling average has Miyares up by 0.76 point,” we wrote on election eve. “We remain bearish on Miyares because we think that . . . Jones will win the lion’s share of those who claim to be undecided.”
2025 Lessons for Republicans:
The 2025 elections solidify a key lesson from 2022 and ’24, which is that only two buckets of Republicans can win competitive general elections in today’s political environment: (1) President Donald Trump and Republicans who share a ballot with him, and (2) independent personalities with sufficient vision and charisma to drive people to the polls without the president’s help.
Obviously, Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears weren’t in the first bucket. And our analysis is that they didn’t fall into the second one, either. Ciattarelli closely tied himself to the president, failing to establish an independent identity. And Earle-Sears, who memorably spent the sole gubernatorial debate interrupting her opponent, lacked the charisma necessary to inspire Republican turnout.
Since Trump will presumably never again be on a general-election ballot, Republicans hoping to win competitive elections should nominate independent, charismatic visionaries in the mold of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, and outgoing Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin. Trump loyalists who lack independent identities will struggle in 2026 and beyond.
Another lesson from the 2025 elections is that Trump and the GOP should focus squarely on the economy in the months ahead. Economic growth is currently very strong, but consumer confidence is near an all-time low, the consumer price inflation rate remains where it was in January, and the economy has added only half a million jobs since Trump’s second inauguration.
It is no surprise, then, that the economy was the single biggest issue in Virginia and the second biggest in New Jersey (outpaced only by taxes, and only then by a whisker).
Voters believe that, despite their economic concerns, the president’s mind is elsewhere: A majority says “the Trump Administration is ‘too focused on foreign affairs’ and ‘not enough on domestic issues,’” according to a recent poll. Thankfully for Trump and the GOP, they have plenty of time to refocus.
— Declan M. Hurley
This article assesses where we went right and wrong in our 2025 predictions, concluding with recommendations for how Republicans can fare better in 2026.
New Jersey:
Our model predicted that Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill would defeat Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli by 2.55 percentage points. Current results show that we were directionally correct but that we underestimated the magnitude of Sherrill’s win by 10.96 points—the single worst error in FDL modeling history.
Two factors contributed to our Garden State blunder.
First, the governor-elect massively outperformed pre-election polls. Bad polling is nothing new for New Jersey, which a recent Wall Street Journal report described as “a particularly hard state to survey.” And it is impossible to predict in which direction New Jersey polls will be off, so this is probably an unfixable source of error.
Second, our model gave Ciattarelli far too much credit for the fact that his supporters registered as 23% more excited to vote than Sherrill’s. That on-paper enthusiasm clearly did not materialize at the polls.
Virginia:
Our model fared much better in the Old Dominion. We correctly predicted Democratic victories in the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. And, while we underestimated Democrats’ winning margins, we did so by an average of only 4.68 percentage points.
Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger defeated GOP nominee Winsome Earle-Sears by 3.70 percentage points more than our model anticipated. Lieutenant Governor–elect Ghazala Hashmi’s winning margin outpaced our model’s prediction by 5.94 points. And Attorney General–elect Jay Jones beat GOP incumbent Jason Miyares by 4.40 points more than our model expected.
As in New Jersey, we were poorly served by public polling, which had Republicans winning the attorney general race and coming closer in the other two races than they actually did. That polling would be off in Virginia, however, didn’t come as a surprise to us: “[O]ur adjusted polling average has Miyares up by 0.76 point,” we wrote on election eve. “We remain bearish on Miyares because we think that . . . Jones will win the lion’s share of those who claim to be undecided.”
2025 Lessons for Republicans:
The 2025 elections solidify a key lesson from 2022 and ’24, which is that only two buckets of Republicans can win competitive general elections in today’s political environment: (1) President Donald Trump and Republicans who share a ballot with him, and (2) independent personalities with sufficient vision and charisma to drive people to the polls without the president’s help.
Obviously, Ciattarelli and Earle-Sears weren’t in the first bucket. And our analysis is that they didn’t fall into the second one, either. Ciattarelli closely tied himself to the president, failing to establish an independent identity. And Earle-Sears, who memorably spent the sole gubernatorial debate interrupting her opponent, lacked the charisma necessary to inspire Republican turnout.
Since Trump will presumably never again be on a general-election ballot, Republicans hoping to win competitive elections should nominate independent, charismatic visionaries in the mold of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, and outgoing Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin. Trump loyalists who lack independent identities will struggle in 2026 and beyond.
Another lesson from the 2025 elections is that Trump and the GOP should focus squarely on the economy in the months ahead. Economic growth is currently very strong, but consumer confidence is near an all-time low, the consumer price inflation rate remains where it was in January, and the economy has added only half a million jobs since Trump’s second inauguration.
It is no surprise, then, that the economy was the single biggest issue in Virginia and the second biggest in New Jersey (outpaced only by taxes, and only then by a whisker).
Voters believe that, despite their economic concerns, the president’s mind is elsewhere: A majority says “the Trump Administration is ‘too focused on foreign affairs’ and ‘not enough on domestic issues,’” according to a recent poll. Thankfully for Trump and the GOP, they have plenty of time to refocus.
— Declan M. Hurley
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