If the 2026 elections were held today, the Democratic Party would retake the U.S. House of Representatives, flip three U.S. Senate seats but fall short of a majority, and net one governorship. That is according to the FDL Review election model, which accounts for public polling (adjusted for past accuracy), state fundamentals, and the relative enthusiasm of each party’s voters. Our model performed well in each of the three previous cycles that we ran it: 2020 , 2024 , and 2025 . A Divided U.S. Congress: Our model indicates that Democrats would fail to retake the Senate if the elections were held today. They’d sweep North Carolina and narrowly win Maine and Ohio. But Republicans would end up with 50 Senate seats and, thanks to Vice President J.D. Vance’s tiebreaking vote, a majority. Either party could conceivably end up with a comfortable 53-seat majority. Races in six states—Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—would be decided by less than five points were the elections hel...