If the 2026 elections were held today, the Democratic Party would retake the U.S. House of Representatives, flip three U.S. Senate seats but fall short of a majority, and net one governorship.
That is according to the FDL Review election model, which accounts for public polling (adjusted for past accuracy), state fundamentals, and the relative enthusiasm of each party’s voters. Our model performed well in each of the three previous cycles that we ran it: 2020, 2024, and 2025.
A Divided U.S. Congress:
That is according to the FDL Review election model, which accounts for public polling (adjusted for past accuracy), state fundamentals, and the relative enthusiasm of each party’s voters. Our model performed well in each of the three previous cycles that we ran it: 2020, 2024, and 2025.
A Divided U.S. Congress:
Our model indicates that Democrats would fail to retake the Senate if the elections were held today. They’d sweep North Carolina and narrowly win Maine and Ohio. But Republicans would end up with 50 Senate seats and, thanks to Vice President J.D. Vance’s tiebreaking vote, a majority.
Either party could conceivably end up with a comfortable 53-seat majority. Races in six states—Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—would be decided by less than five points were the elections held today. And in Maine and Ohio, Democrats lead by less than one point.
Our model most cuts against the grain in Texas. Polls show Democratic state Representative James Talarico defeating GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton, but we have Paxton up by 2.39 points. That’s because Texas is a solidly Republican state where President Donald Trump’s winning margin surged from 5.58 in 2020 to 13.68 in 2024. And polls are probably failing to capture support for Paxton: GOP Senate candidates in Texas outperformed their polls in 2020 and ’24, and Paxton outperformed his in both the 2022 attorney general race and his 2026 Senate primary.
Across the contested Senate races, Republicans would underperform the president’s 2024 margins by 7.27 percentage points. One bright spot for the GOP is Maine, where longtime Senator Susan Collins would outperform Trump by 6.82 points if the election were held today.
Democrats would retake the House, 228–207, if the elections were held today. They’d win the House popular vote by a thumping 7.46 points, a 10.02-point swing from 2024. While our model doesn’t provide seat-by-seat House projections, here’s what the map might look like:
Either party could conceivably end up with a comfortable 53-seat majority. Races in six states—Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—would be decided by less than five points were the elections held today. And in Maine and Ohio, Democrats lead by less than one point.
Our model most cuts against the grain in Texas. Polls show Democratic state Representative James Talarico defeating GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton, but we have Paxton up by 2.39 points. That’s because Texas is a solidly Republican state where President Donald Trump’s winning margin surged from 5.58 in 2020 to 13.68 in 2024. And polls are probably failing to capture support for Paxton: GOP Senate candidates in Texas outperformed their polls in 2020 and ’24, and Paxton outperformed his in both the 2022 attorney general race and his 2026 Senate primary.
Across the contested Senate races, Republicans would underperform the president’s 2024 margins by 7.27 percentage points. One bright spot for the GOP is Maine, where longtime Senator Susan Collins would outperform Trump by 6.82 points if the election were held today.
Democrats would retake the House, 228–207, if the elections were held today. They’d win the House popular vote by a thumping 7.46 points, a 10.02-point swing from 2024. While our model doesn’t provide seat-by-seat House projections, here’s what the map might look like:
An Even Gubernatorial Split:
Our model indicates that Democrats would net one governorship if the elections were held today, losing Kansas’s but narrowly winning Iowa’s and Nevada’s. That would work out to a 25–25 split across the governorships.
Yet, the final balance in the states is no sure thing. Fully seven governorships—including those of Iowa and Nevada—would be decided by less than five points were the elections held today.
Analysis:
Perhaps the biggest drag for Republicans is that only 38.9% of Americans approve of the president’s job performance, with just 34.0% backing his handling of the economy.
These mediocre ratings reflect a mixed economic picture. The unemployment rate is a tick higher now (4.2%) than it was in January 2025 (4.0%). And the economy has added only 776,000 jobs overall since January 2025, compared to a gain of 2.6 million from May 2023 to January 2025.
To some extent, the president is a victim of his own success in fulfilling his campaign promises. The federal workforce is 328,000 smaller than in January 2025, versus an upsurge of 95,000 from May 2023 to January 2025. And the foreign-born population declined 2.9 million from January 2025 to July 2026, 1.3 million of them workers.
As for inflation, it is higher now (3.72%) than it was when Trump took office (2.99%). Powering this upsurge are Trump’s tariffs, which have boosted goods price inflation by two to three points, and the Iran War, which has saddled the average household with an additional $1,100 of fuel costs.
And while the economy is expected to grow by 3.6% in the third quarter, GDP growth has averaged just 2.15% during Trump’s first year and a half. That compares unfavorably to 3.12% during the final year and a half under former President Joe Biden.
On the other hand, 1.6 million more native-born Americans had jobs in September 2026 than in January 2025. That compares to a drop of 171,000 from May 2023 to January 2025.
Forthcoming Releases:
We will publish an updated reading of our model on Sunday, October 25 and a final prediction on Monday, November 2.
— Declan M. Hurley
Our model indicates that Democrats would net one governorship if the elections were held today, losing Kansas’s but narrowly winning Iowa’s and Nevada’s. That would work out to a 25–25 split across the governorships.
Yet, the final balance in the states is no sure thing. Fully seven governorships—including those of Iowa and Nevada—would be decided by less than five points were the elections held today.
Analysis:
Perhaps the biggest drag for Republicans is that only 38.9% of Americans approve of the president’s job performance, with just 34.0% backing his handling of the economy.
These mediocre ratings reflect a mixed economic picture. The unemployment rate is a tick higher now (4.2%) than it was in January 2025 (4.0%). And the economy has added only 776,000 jobs overall since January 2025, compared to a gain of 2.6 million from May 2023 to January 2025.
To some extent, the president is a victim of his own success in fulfilling his campaign promises. The federal workforce is 328,000 smaller than in January 2025, versus an upsurge of 95,000 from May 2023 to January 2025. And the foreign-born population declined 2.9 million from January 2025 to July 2026, 1.3 million of them workers.
As for inflation, it is higher now (3.72%) than it was when Trump took office (2.99%). Powering this upsurge are Trump’s tariffs, which have boosted goods price inflation by two to three points, and the Iran War, which has saddled the average household with an additional $1,100 of fuel costs.
And while the economy is expected to grow by 3.6% in the third quarter, GDP growth has averaged just 2.15% during Trump’s first year and a half. That compares unfavorably to 3.12% during the final year and a half under former President Joe Biden.
On the other hand, 1.6 million more native-born Americans had jobs in September 2026 than in January 2025. That compares to a drop of 171,000 from May 2023 to January 2025.
Forthcoming Releases:
We will publish an updated reading of our model on Sunday, October 25 and a final prediction on Monday, November 2.
— Declan M. Hurley
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