If the 2026 elections were held today, the Democratic Party would retake the U.S. House of Representatives, flip two U.S. Senate seats but fall short of a majority, and net three governorships.
Those are the most recent results of the FDL Review election model. Since last week, Democrats have modestly improved their position in the House and across the state governorships. Republicans have gained in the Senate.
A Democratic House:
Our model indicates that Democrats would retake the House, 229–206, if the elections were held today. That’s up from 228–207 last week. And Democrats would win the House popular vote by 7.78 percentage points, an increase of 0.32 from last week.
Purely by coincidence, our House forecast mirrors that of the famed Cook Political Report. Cook has 220 seats going Democrat, 198 going GOP, and 17 in the tossup column. Our model suggests that the tossup races would break 9–8 Democrat if the elections were held today.
While our model doesn’t provide seat-by-seat House projections, here’s a spreadsheet with our unofficial ratings.
A Republican Senate:
Our model shows that Democrats would fail to retake the Senate if the elections were held today. While they’d flip North Carolina and Ohio, that would leave the GOP with a 51-seat majority.
The Senate races in Maine and Ohio are within a percentage point. Another four—in Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas—are within five percentage points. Thus, either party could conceivably end up with a 53-seat Senate majority.
Michigan Republican Mike Rogers and Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown are running for Senate again in 2026 after coming up short in ’24. Two years ago, our model underestimated Rogers by 2.20 points and Brown by 0.50 point. If it’s wrong by the same amount this time, Rogers would beat Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Brown would win more decisively in Ohio.
As we explained last week, our model doesn’t blindly follow polling averages. It adjusts them for past accuracy before supplementing them with indicators of (1) the partisan balance in each state and (2) the relative enthusiasm of each party’s voters. Consequently, our model deviates from polling averages by an average of 2.88 percentage points across the Senate battlegrounds.
Because our model has a keen sense of déjà vu, it is bullish on Senate Democrats in Minnesota and New Hampshire and on Senate Republicans in Kansas and South Carolina. Polls predicted close Senate races in red Kansas and South Carolina back in 2020, only for both states to elect GOP senators by double digits. Essentially the converse played out in blue Minnesota and New Hampshire in 2020 and ’22, respectively.
An Even Gubernatorial Split:
Our model indicates that Democrats would net three governorships if the elections were held today, losing Kansas’s but flipping those of Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, and Nevada. That’d work out to a 27–23 Democratic advantage across the governorships.
The final balance in the states is far from a sure thing. Eight gubernatorial races would be decided by less than five percentage points were the elections held today—three of them by less than a percentage point.
Analysis:
Our model indicates that if the 2026 elections were held today, the House popular vote would zoom leftward by 10.34 percentage points compared to 2024. The story is similar in the Senate battlegrounds, where GOP Senate candidates would do 7.35 percentage points worse than President Donald Trump in 2024.
Early voting trends seemingly confirm our model’s finding that Republicans would perform badly vis-à-vis 2024. Democrats are outvoting Republicans by 12 points, 47%–35%, nationwide. That’s an eight-point swing from a similar point in 2024, when Democrats led 43%–39%.
“Perhaps the biggest drag for Republicans,” we wrote last week, “is that only 38.9% of Americans approve of the president’s job performance, with just 34.0% backing his handling of the economy.” Those numbers are now 38.5% and 32.5%, respectively, but our point stands.
Then again, Democrats were outvoting Republicans by 12 points at this point in 2022 but still lost that year’s House popular vote by 2.72. And this year’s early voting patterns might be more analogous to 2022’s than 2024’s. According to a fresh Economist poll, a far greater percentage of Democratic registered voters (18%) has already voted than Republicans (5%). This leaves the GOP with comparatively more gas in the tank: An additional 84% of Republicans will “definitely” or “probably” vote, compared to 76% of Democrats.
Forthcoming Release:
We will publish a final prediction on Monday, November 2.
— Declan M. Hurley
Those are the most recent results of the FDL Review election model. Since last week, Democrats have modestly improved their position in the House and across the state governorships. Republicans have gained in the Senate.
A Democratic House:
Our model indicates that Democrats would retake the House, 229–206, if the elections were held today. That’s up from 228–207 last week. And Democrats would win the House popular vote by 7.78 percentage points, an increase of 0.32 from last week.
Purely by coincidence, our House forecast mirrors that of the famed Cook Political Report. Cook has 220 seats going Democrat, 198 going GOP, and 17 in the tossup column. Our model suggests that the tossup races would break 9–8 Democrat if the elections were held today.
While our model doesn’t provide seat-by-seat House projections, here’s a spreadsheet with our unofficial ratings.
A Republican Senate:
Our model shows that Democrats would fail to retake the Senate if the elections were held today. While they’d flip North Carolina and Ohio, that would leave the GOP with a 51-seat majority.
The Senate races in Maine and Ohio are within a percentage point. Another four—in Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas—are within five percentage points. Thus, either party could conceivably end up with a 53-seat Senate majority.
Michigan Republican Mike Rogers and Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown are running for Senate again in 2026 after coming up short in ’24. Two years ago, our model underestimated Rogers by 2.20 points and Brown by 0.50 point. If it’s wrong by the same amount this time, Rogers would beat Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Brown would win more decisively in Ohio.
As we explained last week, our model doesn’t blindly follow polling averages. It adjusts them for past accuracy before supplementing them with indicators of (1) the partisan balance in each state and (2) the relative enthusiasm of each party’s voters. Consequently, our model deviates from polling averages by an average of 2.88 percentage points across the Senate battlegrounds.
Because our model has a keen sense of déjà vu, it is bullish on Senate Democrats in Minnesota and New Hampshire and on Senate Republicans in Kansas and South Carolina. Polls predicted close Senate races in red Kansas and South Carolina back in 2020, only for both states to elect GOP senators by double digits. Essentially the converse played out in blue Minnesota and New Hampshire in 2020 and ’22, respectively.
An Even Gubernatorial Split:
Our model indicates that Democrats would net three governorships if the elections were held today, losing Kansas’s but flipping those of Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, and Nevada. That’d work out to a 27–23 Democratic advantage across the governorships.
The final balance in the states is far from a sure thing. Eight gubernatorial races would be decided by less than five percentage points were the elections held today—three of them by less than a percentage point.
Analysis:
Our model indicates that if the 2026 elections were held today, the House popular vote would zoom leftward by 10.34 percentage points compared to 2024. The story is similar in the Senate battlegrounds, where GOP Senate candidates would do 7.35 percentage points worse than President Donald Trump in 2024.
Early voting trends seemingly confirm our model’s finding that Republicans would perform badly vis-à-vis 2024. Democrats are outvoting Republicans by 12 points, 47%–35%, nationwide. That’s an eight-point swing from a similar point in 2024, when Democrats led 43%–39%.
“Perhaps the biggest drag for Republicans,” we wrote last week, “is that only 38.9% of Americans approve of the president’s job performance, with just 34.0% backing his handling of the economy.” Those numbers are now 38.5% and 32.5%, respectively, but our point stands.
Then again, Democrats were outvoting Republicans by 12 points at this point in 2022 but still lost that year’s House popular vote by 2.72. And this year’s early voting patterns might be more analogous to 2022’s than 2024’s. According to a fresh Economist poll, a far greater percentage of Democratic registered voters (18%) has already voted than Republicans (5%). This leaves the GOP with comparatively more gas in the tank: An additional 84% of Republicans will “definitely” or “probably” vote, compared to 76% of Democrats.
Forthcoming Release:
We will publish a final prediction on Monday, November 2.
— Declan M. Hurley
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