Americans continue to sour on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has been in the red since mid-August. Rasmussen Reports, a conservative pollster that tracks the president's approval rating daily, pegs his disapproval rating among likely voters at a whopping 60%.
Just 38% of likely voters approve of Biden's job performance in Rasmussen polling, an all-time low for the 46th president. The left-leaning Quinnipiac College polling operation reports that Biden's approval rating is only 35% among registered voters, and 33% among all Americans.
At this point in former President Donald Trump's tenure, Rasmussen pegged his approval rating at 46%. The 45th president hit a 38% approval rating only once in his presidency (on August 2, 2017) and never saw his support slip below that level.
Polls show that Trump would beat Biden by almost five points in the popular vote if the 2024 election were held today. Trump lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020, winning the first time in the Electoral College and losing narrowly in his reelection bid.
In 2020, polls overstated Biden's popularity vis-a-vis his predecessor.
Ahead of Christmas, Biden's approval rating appeared to be on the mend. But FDL Review presciently recognized that the improvement was transitory, unlike the 2021-22 inflation. "RealClearPolitics’ average of Biden’s job-approval polls pegs him at 44.4% approval, up from 41.3% in mid-November," we wrote on December 20th. "However, Marist and pollsters that report their results at regular intervals—namely, RMG Research and Rasmussen Reports—suggest that the president’s marginal average improvement is a 'dead cat bounce,' i.e., a phantom, temporary improvement amid a long-term decline."
Indeed, Biden's momentary improvement was a dead cat bounce. Biden's approval rating, measured by the RCP average, has since plunged to 41.6%. And with official CPI price inflation running at its fastest clip since 1982, Biden's voting-rights bill certain to fail in Congress amid divisive presidential rhetoric, and COVID running unchecked despite Biden's campaign promises to the contrary, we expect his approval rating to remain deeply negative in the near term.
One warning sign for Republicans is the generic ballot, which shows that their lead over Democrats is a quarter of what it was two months ago. In line with what The Wall Street Journal editorial board suggested, Senator Joe Manchin (D., West Virginia) killing the "Build Back Better" proposal may have given Democrats a chance to moderate the oncoming 2022 red wave.