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Josh Hawley is the Clear Frontrunner in Missouri

As the 2018 U.S. Senate race in Missouri enters the final stretch, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, the Republican nominee, has maintained a consistent lead against incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill. The Missouri race is rated as a tossup by most handicappers, and it will determine the balance of the Senate.

Josh Hawley

Two late September polls, including one released on Saturday, demonstrate Hawley's advantage in a state that President Donald Trump won by 20 points in 2016.

A Remington Research poll conducted over two days, the 26th and the 27th of September, shows Hawley ahead by two points among likely voters. The survey had a sample size of 1,555, with a 2.5% margin of error.

Asked whether "the Supreme Court confirmation process for Brett Kavanaugh made you more likely to vote for Claire McCaskill or less likely to vote for Claire McCaskill," 49% of voters said they're less likely to vote for the incumbent.

Only 42% said that they're more likely to vote for McCaskill after seeing her role in the nomination process, where she stated opposition to Judge Kavanaugh.


A Trafalgar Group poll with 1,724 respondents and a 2.4% margin of error shows Hawley leading McCaskill by three points.

If McCaskill votes to defeat Kavanaugh's nomination, Hawley will take 49% of the vote to McCaskill's 43%, according to the poll.

Since McCaskill has already committed to voting against the judge's confirmation, it should be assumed that the survey showing a six-point Hawley lead is the more accurate barometer of the political winds in Missouri.

Hawley hasn't been behind in a poll of likely voters since May, but he had suffered a bout of tied surveys. The president recently held a rally for Hawley in Springfield, Missouri, which apparently boosted the attorney general's ratings and put him in the lead.

Josh Hawley & Donald Trump

McCaskill has been dogged by the fact that businesses belonging to her husband, Joseph Shepard, have received $131 billion in federal subsidies since she won her seat in the Senate. McClatchy reported on the matter, writing that "Joseph Shepard’s personal income from his investments in those businesses has grown exponentially during his wife’s two terms in the Senate" (emphasis mine).

It is FDL Review's recommendation that Hawley run ads on McCaskill's stances regarding abortion. She supports Health & Human Services funding for abortion providersvoted against banning abortions after 20 weeks, when fetuses have the ability to feel pain; and has a 100% rating with National Abortion Rights Action League (NARAL).

Claire McCaskill

Even in today's Democratic Party, McCaskill's positions on abortion are extreme. They defy the consensus in Missouri, where 50% support the criminalization of abortion. For comparison, only 45% are in support of legalized abortion.

Hawley, on the other hand, doesn't have extreme policy positions and he hasn't been afflicted by scandal. In fact, he has demonstrated his political chops by taking on the most powerful of institutions: the Catholic Church and Google.

In the Senate, Hawley will continue to fight for justice and conservative causes, while not forgetting that his responsibility is the representation of the people of Missouri.