Skip to main content

Missouri, Arizona, West Virginia Trending Toward GOP

U.S. Senate seats in Missouri, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Arizona continue to shift toward the Republican column amid surging voter enthusiasm among conservatives.

In Missouri, Republican candidate Josh Hawley, the state attorney general, led incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill in two polls released on Thursday.

Josh Hawley

A poll by McLaughlin & Associates for Missouri Rising Action showed Hawley ahead of McCaskill by eight points, up from four points in their June survey. Hawley's expanded lead can be ascribed to independents, a bloc that now supports him by a twelve-point margin.

The McLaughlin poll also found that a majority of Missouri voters, 51%, disapprove of McCaskill, whose husband has benefited from hundreds of millions in federal subsidies over the course of her tenure.

Another Missouri poll, conducted by Vox Populi, shows McCaskill trailing Hawley by two points. The survey also found that 49% of Missourians seek the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, compared to 39% against.

Since McCaskill stated opposition to Kavanaugh's nomination, it is possible that Missouri's overall support for the judge's candidacy has dragged down McCaskill's numbers.

In Arizona, Air Force Colonel Martha McSally, a GOP member of the U.S. House, has lagged in the polls against her Democratic opponent, Krysten Sinema, also a congresswoman. However, a new poll conducted by Vox Populi shows McSally capturing 52% of the vote to Sinema's 48%.

Martha McSally

Even better for McSally, the poll shows that 45% of the voters are solidly in her column, and 6% of the voters "lean" toward her; for Sinema, only 42% of the voters are guaranteed, and 7% "lean" towards supporting her bid. So, McSally has the potential to take 58% of the vote if the political winds continue to shift in her favor.

In West Virginia, where Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin has led state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey by double digits in the past, Manchin's lead has shrunk to four points in a new poll conducted by The Tarrance Group.

Patrick Morrisey

The survey found a 58% approval for President Donald Trump, and 57% of the voters stated that they would "vote for the candidate for the U.S. Senate that will support President Trump’s agenda."


The gleaming results in Missouri, West Virginia, and Arizona come a day after a poll of the North Dakota race showed incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp behind by 12 points, leading some to say that the race is beyond saving for the senator.

Heitkamp, like McCaskill, said that she will vote against Kavanaugh's confirmation. Manchin has yet to publicly declare his intentions, perhaps buoying his numbers for the time being.