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Analysis: President Trump Holds 2020 Advantage

Several days ago, the front page of POLITICO, reliably a left-leaning journal, was graced by a surprising banner: "How Trump is on track for a 2020 landslide."

The article focused on economic models, including one from Yale that has President Donald Trump winning 54% of the popular vote. Another, from TrendMacrolytics, predicts a 416-122 Electoral College win for the president (the final count in 2016 was 304-227).

While FDL Review prefers to use titlecase for headlines, we appreciate POLITICO's sobriety. It is obvious that their journalists have learned the lessons of the 2016 election, when the pollsters and the commentariat were measuring Secretary Hillary Clinton's White House drapes.

President Donald Trump

Of course, Clinton was vanquished by Donald Trump in an upset surprising to everyone except those who had examined the fundamental indicators: weak economic data, widespread despair, and a willingness to drastically change the culture of Washington, D.C.

If POLITICO's reporting is any indication, Trump is on his way to a second presidential election victory (and maybe it will be less surprising this time around). This pronouncement is further validated by new poll results from Fox News, which show solid data for the president.

Joe Biden, the most formidable Democratic contender, leads Trump by just seven points. This is down from 12 points in PPP's January survey and 10 points in Emerson's recent poll. Despite the fact that the former vice president has yet to announce his bid, he has the support of 31% of the voters in his party's primary, and it is certainly easy to see his path to the nomination.

Bernie Sanders, the socialist senator of Vermont who was the 2016 Democratic runner-up, is ahead of Trump by just three points, a significant collapse in public support. As recently as late March 2018, Sanders was up 16 on the president. It is apparent that Sanders' image has been tainted by the fracas of Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minnesota), his left-wing ideological kin.

Trump, who lost the 2016 popular vote, is ahead of Senators Kamala Harris (D-California) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) by two points. This is a shift from just recently, when these matchups were either tied or in the Democrats' favor.

Of course, the mainstream media ignored Trump's leads in the Harris and Warren contests, reporting only on the Biden and Sanders polls. The Hill blared: "Biden, Sanders edge Trump in hypothetical 2020 matchups in Fox News poll."

Never mind that if Trump led Sanders by three points, the papers would report that the lead is statistically insignificant. And if Trump led Sanders and Biden, the media would report on Harris and Warren.

However, we at FDL Review are clear-eyed, just as we were in '16: The president is the favorite in the upcoming election. The economic models are in his favor, as is this data: Democratic leads of three to seven points are to be expected this early in the race, especially since Team Trump has yet to produce ads or go negative.

Do not be surprised if the president shocks the world once again on November 3, 2020, especially if he has another 84 weeks like the last one.